South Africa’s mining and manufacturing sectors delivered worse-than-expected results for April 2025, deepening concerns over the country’s economic outlook. Stats SA reported a 7.8% year-on-year contraction in mining production—its sixth consecutive monthly decline—well below economists’ expectations of a 4% drop. The sharpest decline came from Platinum Group Metals (PGMs), down 24%, contributing -8.0 percentage points to overall performance. Gold and coal also fell, by 2.5% and 1.7% respectively. Only iron ore provided a positive lift, increasing 5.3%.

Investec economist Lara Hodes attributed the mining sector’s contraction to global trade uncertainties, reduced export orders, and persistent domestic issues including high input costs, illegal mining, labour instability, and severe logistics constraints. Despite a rising gold price during the period, the domestic sector remained unable to benefit due to these compounding challenges. Gold mining, in long-term decline, has seen production drop from 620 tonnes in 1988 to just 97 tonnes in 2023, with over 440,000 jobs lost.

Simultaneously, April manufacturing output fell 6.3% year-on-year, following a revised 1.2% drop in March, marking a significant underperformance relative to the expected 4.5% decline. With both sectors being crucial to South Africa’s economic activity and export revenue, this poor start to Q2 signals a likely economic contraction for the quarter.

GDP grew just 0.1% in Q1 2025, buoyed only by agriculture. Revised annual growth forecasts now range between 1% and 1.5%, with some economists predicting below 1%. Despite the launch of Phase II of Operation Vulindlela, many Phase I reforms remain incomplete, casting doubt on South Africa’s ability to escape stagnation.